Sunday, 22 May 2016

May 22nd thoughts


Starting the day in Amarillo, and there is quite a large risk area today. Anywhere from parts of SW Nebraska down towards west Texas has a risk of severe storms. We'll target the TX risk area, as storms are expected to form along the dry line with diffluent upper flow aloft. In addition, there appears to be a subtle shortwave, on water vapour imagery, moving through Arizona at the moment, which should reach west Texas this afternoon. Various convection-allowing model guidance show thunderstorms developing, although, as you'd expect, in somewhat different places. A rather persistent signal for a slow-moving cell, evolving into a small SE'wards moving cluster, appears to be south of Lubbock. We'll probably drop down towards Lubbock and await developments.

The image below is a subjective analysis of the situation - a dry line is over eastern N Mexico, with a feed of moist south-easterly winds to its east.

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