Wednesday, 27 May 2015

May 26th report

Headed to Woodward after having lunch in Greensburg. When the storm formed to the north in S Kansas we thought about heading up there but waited. The storms in central OK then got more interesting and produced a tornado - decided it was too far to get there whilst the storm was doing anything interesting. Classic indecision set in and we started to go north but the cell in S Kansas looked poor so we wheeled around and headed east and then south towards the central Oklahoma storms. Decided there was no point in getting up close and personal as the external structure at sunset as seen from the north was stunning! Pics soon but what was a rather annoying day turned into something rather spectacular at the end! Lesson - never give up!
Headed to El Reno in the end for the night although we probably should have gone back up to Woodward!

Edit: 1 pic of the storm below, and the second is of a train near Boise City, Oklahoma, back on the 24th.

Tuesday, 26 May 2015

Late afternoon coffee

Currently sat with a coffee outside McD's in Woodward watching things evolve. HRRR seems to be having odd issues with developing convection in this area already when there is none - cumulus seem to be getting better developed on vis imagery and there appears to be a disturbance in the upper atmosphere out west which should arrive in the next 2 hours.

May 26th thoughts

Hello. Another morning of sunshine! There is a fairly large area of slight thunderstorm risk today across parts of Oklahoma and Texas. The SW of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of NW Texas look like having the higher risk of severe weather but that's a long way south for us, and there are flooding issues around parts of that area too. A more limited risk exists across parts of NW Oklahoma and perhaps the adjacent parts of the TX Panhandle and S Kansas - we'll likely head to Woodward for lunch and take it from there.

May 25th report

Hello. Not a huge amount to report today - headed to Great Bend, Kansas, for lunch and awaited storm initiation along a weak surface boundary to our east. Continued east and noted towering cumulus development - a thunderstorm developed to our NW and other storms developed to our SSE near Wichita. The net result was a mass of storms developing quite quickly in the absence of a capping inversion - it all became a bit of a mess but we did see some lightning and torrential rain, and experience some gusty winds.

Ate dinner with Nathan Edwards at Applebee's (where else?!) in Hutchinson, KS, where we're staying tonight. As I write there are thunderstorms to the north-west heading towards us - lightning is flashing away!

Here's a B&W image of lightning at Garden City taken last night.

Monday, 25 May 2015

May 25th thoughts

Hello. The sun is shining in Garden City! One of the few mornings we've looked out and seen sunshine this trip thus far! Today, a couple of boundaries are in the Nebraska/Kansas area - a weak area of low pressure in SW Kansas looks like lifting slowly north-east with a boundary extending away to the NE. Surface heating should yield reasonable CAPE this afternoon amidst modest shear - it looks like the I-35 corridor, around Salina to McPherson might be a good starting point, so we'll drift eastwards in that direction.

May 24th report

Hello. A quick report as it's almost 1.30am!

We started and ended the day in Garden City, Kansas. We headed SW into the Oklahome Panhandle, picked up the tail-end of a line of severe thunderstorms near Springfield, Colorado, and then basically came back with them to Garden City. We missed out of an HP supercell to the north in Colorado, and also on a powerful nocturnal series of tornadoes SW of Dodge City - the latter we can live with as, at times, the tornado was shrouded in fog, by all accounts, and was large.

Cracking lightning display now, still - but I can't stay up any longer to take more pics! A couple below from the motel car park just now.

Sunday, 24 May 2015

May 24th thoughts

Hello. Today there is a risk of severe thunderstorms from SE Colorado through portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A rather weak dry line should develop and mix slowly east and north-eastwards through the day with low pressure continuing to evolve over parts of NE New Mexico and SE Colorado. Picking a chase target is quite tricky in the absence of major forcing mechanisms.

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms will form over SE Colorado this afternoon, with a more isolated risk in to the NE Texas Panhandle. The better chance of seeing thunderstorms is in the former but the more isolated risk in the Panhandle will likely have better shear to work with, and could yield a very photogenic supercell or two.

We will only commit when short term observational trends (hopefully!) paint a better picture. We'll likely head south from Garden City towards the OK Panhandle and see how things evolve.