tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49388954450002887612024-03-05T22:22:56.637+00:00Knightley's BlogStorm chase reports and random rants/thoughts.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.comBlogger497125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-43557806143041482542021-05-17T08:31:00.002+01:002021-05-17T08:31:22.625+01:00Not heading out again<p> Hello! Well, another year, another non-chase holiday! Sadly, with the ongoing pandemic, despite some opening up of things, we're not able to visit the Great Plains for the second year in a row. </p><p>There looks to be some reasonable storm chances over the coming 2 weeks, so I'm sure there will be some decent storm structure and maybe even a few tornadoes which we would have had the chance of chasing.</p><p>Good luck to all those US folks chasing this year - and stay safe!</p>Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-22872672002019125102020-06-04T14:32:00.001+01:002020-06-04T14:32:34.750+01:00June 4th...not not back home Hello there. Today we didn’t get home from our not trip to the USA. It’s not not been fun to not chase this year, we we don’t have to get over not jet lag now. Thanks for viewing!Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-80239485875914834862020-06-03T15:26:00.001+01:002020-06-03T15:26:11.763+01:00June 3rd...not heading home Hello. Today, we’re not heading to DFW to not catch the plane back to LHR tonight.<br />
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It’s not not been a great not trip this year.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-52009772048265490002020-06-02T15:43:00.002+01:002020-06-02T15:43:46.451+01:00June 2nd, not towards DFW Hello. After not cashing storms in the USA, today we’re not heading towards DFW ready to not fly home tomorrow. It’s been fun.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-8299288324780347152020-05-29T15:14:00.000+01:002020-05-29T15:14:15.562+01:00May 29th, not heading north Hello. Today we’re not heading from San Antonio, Texas, to Garden City, Kansas.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-34935605475813701392020-05-27T12:00:00.000+01:002020-05-27T12:00:37.633+01:00May 27th...not back inlandHello. On the anniversary of several memorable chase events over the years (Wyoming tornadoes, 2018; Canadian, Texas, tornadoes of 2015; and the Oklahoma derecho of 2001), today will see us not heading to Llano or San Saba, Texas, for some picturesque south-eastwards moving hail beasts.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-80137927650412597472020-05-26T13:00:00.001+01:002020-05-26T13:00:49.559+01:00May 26th, not to the coastAfter not chasing around the Mexico border yesterday, today will be a non non chase day, perhaps to the Gulf coast of Texas.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-58440705802210681582020-05-25T13:24:00.001+01:002020-05-25T13:24:08.496+01:00May 25th, not heading SWAfter yesterday’s not chasing around Lubbock, today we’re not heading SW towards Monahans and then to between Fort Stockton and Ozona.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-33624869198855305102020-05-24T18:15:00.002+01:002020-05-24T18:15:59.108+01:00May 24th...not lounging around LubbockHi. After not chasing a near-stationary HP tornadic supercell SE of Lubbock yesterday, our non-plans for today are to not hang around Lubbock with an eye on slow-moving cells around the area later on.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-88470396206490762222020-05-23T13:08:00.001+01:002020-05-23T13:08:07.171+01:00May 23rd...not heading west Hello. After not chasing around N Texas yesterday, and not seeing some big tornadic supercells, today the plan is to not head west to between Lubbock and Midland.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-52198811290749206342020-05-22T17:21:00.001+01:002020-05-22T17:21:41.679+01:00May 22nd...not heading south Today we’re not heading down towards Ardmore, Oklahoma, and points further south into N Texas.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-34430825682821931492020-05-21T12:09:00.001+01:002020-05-21T12:09:14.490+01:00May 21st...not heading northOur not-chase around Lubbock yesterday gave some large hail. Today we’re not heading north to Liberal, KS, for a 5% tornado risk.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-61509533242034779962020-05-20T13:01:00.000+01:002020-05-20T13:01:47.844+01:00Not in AmarilloWe didn’t start the day in Amarillo on our non trip. With a weak front, moist upslope flow and a dry line out west our non trip will see us heading towards Lubbock and then a jog west to the dry line.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-11605565130457790392020-05-19T12:07:00.001+01:002020-05-19T12:07:36.484+01:00Not arrived Hello. We’ve not arrived at our hotel in Weatherford, TX, and so didn’t have a good night’s sleep.<br />
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With the main risk over the next few days around eastern Wyoming tomorrow and then the Panhandles on Thursday, we’ll probably not worry about the storms in WY et al and just poodle up to Amarillo today and then see whether anything more local might fire tomorrow.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-54962848172495060592020-05-18T01:16:00.000+01:002020-05-18T01:16:03.309+01:00Not packedHello. Well, we should be packed and ready to get up at 0500 for the early flight to DFW but it’s not to be. The pattern looks quite for the opening few days but could get a bit more active later.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-84326978473137519312020-05-15T14:55:00.002+01:002020-05-15T14:55:51.317+01:00Not ramping up :(Well, hello you.<br />
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Around this time of the year I usually write something about how we're gearing up for departure to the USA for our annual storm chasing trip, but this year, for rather obvious pandemic-related reasons, we're not.<br />
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I will likely still write some blog entries, though, over the next couple of weeks - to keep the spirit of the trip alive, and also where we might hypothetically have gone, at times.<br />
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This year would have marked by 20th time storm chasing in the states, and it will be the first time Helen and I have not been over since 2003 - every year from 2004 to 2019 inclusive was a chasing trip.<br />
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Regarding the outlook for next week, which I would normally be looking very closely at by now, and writing about - a large omega-block in the upper atmosphere will keep storm chances low for what would have been our first few days out there - perhaps one or two High Plains clusters developing in an upslope regime under the ridge. Late in the week and into the following weekend, some hints of a more SW'erly flow and at least some moisture return - so I would have been optimistic of getting some chasing in, especially later next week.Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-33384467801917979842019-06-06T16:39:00.001+01:002019-06-06T16:39:47.516+01:00June 6th...home timeHello. We're starting the day in Vail, Colorado. Some final sorting and packing to be done and then we'll make our way to Denver International Airport for our flight home this evening.<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-38327926232480790722019-06-06T07:10:00.000+01:002019-06-06T07:10:59.386+01:005th June reportHello. We headed into the Rocky Mountains National Park from Loveland. We drove to Estes Park, and then along the Trail Ridge Road - it was the first day of it being open of the season - even this morning we though it was closed but they tweeted it was open late morning.<br />
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Stunning scenery - and some thunder too!<br />
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We're staying in Vail tonight - like we did at the end of last year's chase!<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-10553468963577844082019-06-05T17:05:00.001+01:002019-06-05T17:05:06.838+01:00June 5 plansHello.<br />
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We don't plan to chase today - instead we will head into the Rockies and visit Rocky Mountain National Park...one of the high roads remains closed due to snow, which is a shame - but understandable, given it was snowing in Denver when we arrived!<br />
<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-63908123386218391322019-06-05T06:10:00.000+01:002019-06-05T06:16:59.926+01:00June 4th - reportHello. We initially decided to target Springfield, Colorado - but then paused to watch a thunderstorm which had developed near Trinidad. We then decided to re-target to the north-east of Pueblo, but, en route, decided that anything which developed would not really be worth pursuing. We then decided that, tomorrow, we would head into the Rockies, and so we booked a motel in Loveland, Colorado.<br />
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It has a waterslide, which is cool - I had a number of goes on it! Also, a hot tub which is outside.<br />
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Pics below by Helen, including the waterslide and me creating rather a splash as I came out the end of it!<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-23412730473583952412019-06-04T16:44:00.001+01:002019-06-04T16:44:31.039+01:00June 4th thoughtsHello.<br />
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As we are heading home on Thurs this might be our last shot. Conditions are marginal for severe storms but small pockets of better parameters are likely, if not easily found. Models suggest backed flow developing this afternoon in SE Colorado and environs. I'm not hopeful of too much but we'll probably head that way to see what transpires.<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-63235499065742099022019-06-04T07:04:00.001+01:002019-06-04T07:04:12.917+01:00June 3rd reportHello. We decided to make the drove north from Hobbs into the Texas Panhandle - the initial idea was to see if we could pick something up towards the SE of Colorado, but by the time we were approaching Dalhart convection was well underway to the north - and also more to the west, towards Clayton, New Mexico. As this was closer we decided to target that. It became rather multicellular when we got there, but we noted a small supercell-type updraught area. This may have been some kind of left split - it moved north and was warned for hail.<br />
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We decided to head to Raton for the night - the road we took was rather rural, but went through the hail swath left by the storm - copious amounts of marble sized hail up to around golf ball to hen egg (1.75 to 2 inches) was lying around. It had left small pits in the mud and covered the road.<br />
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After documenting and reporting this we headed to Raton.<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-20586648429690493282019-06-03T16:16:00.002+01:002019-06-03T16:16:49.912+01:00June 3rd thoughtsHello. We're starting the day in Hobbs, New Mexico. Nothing much going on at the surface. Upper flow is modest. We will head towards Boise City to see what we can pick off, if anything forms over the Raton Mesa area.<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-83246438974923381862019-06-03T07:37:00.000+01:002019-06-03T07:45:59.378+01:00June 2nd reportHello. We started the day in Midland, Texas. After a couple of weeks of pretty much non-stop driving/chasing, it was starting to take it's toll a bit - I felt quite tired - I think getting a nice supercell yesterday just eased all the pressure of wanted some very cool shots.<br />
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The risk area was broad, and one potential area of interest was around SW Texas into SE New Mexico, where an outflow boundary was - although better flow was a bit further north.<br />
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With no overall target in mind we decided to head to Artesia, New Mexico. We got to Hobbs and then decided to continue north to Lovington - a big cell had formed west of Roswell, and so we wanted to keep that in play.<br />
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We got lunch in Lovington and then headed west to Maljamar, and then NW to Hagerman. The supercell was west of there and became tornado warned - it had a nice looking wall cloud for a time but the lack of decent mid-level flow meant it was tending to a high-precipitation (HP) storm - dominated by outflow, which undercut and wrapped around the low-level mesocyclone. It did have big hail, and so we didn't run into the core.<br />
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We then dropped south to Artesia and then back east to Maljamar, to get back ahead of it. Another cell formed nearby, then then there was an uptick in the number of storms, which another beast back towards Artesia.<br />
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We saw some very nice iridescence in the anvil of the cluster of storms, and then decided to head a bit west again to look at the big storm that way. We then ambled east and south-east, pausing now and again to look at the cool shelf cloud, which exhibited some multi-layers at times.<br />
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We ended the day in Hobbs, and had dinner at a busy Applebee's with Dan, Steve and Pete.<br />
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A cool day's chasing where we let serendipity, to some degree, guide where we chased.<br />
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<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4938895445000288761.post-75652735126120226332019-06-02T16:57:00.002+01:002019-06-02T16:57:23.152+01:00June 2nd thoughtsA big area of the High Plains has the chance of severe storms today. Small-scale factors may contribute to locally enhanced chances of a tornado but the overall chance is low. For example, flow may back to the north of the Raton Mesa, over SE Colorado, although moisture is not great, but may be good enough. An outflow boundary around the Trans-Pecos may helps but overall forcing is negligible.<br />
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We considered remaining in SW Texas for the outflow boundary, marked on this map - but will likely drift into southern New Mexico.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJvrs-34Aw7eeFWyRyq550nBWRqTcvZkqQXURMt0YjwjUTBTXvf6qtdU_Xh0B4IrbkOfZqAuslGkoh-HDb9ePDtQYTuqyUwP3OrMFiKq_D4RWgayxuZDEW4MEiDMbwWqVh8lPb321_VJY/s1600/June+2+analysis+2019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJvrs-34Aw7eeFWyRyq550nBWRqTcvZkqQXURMt0YjwjUTBTXvf6qtdU_Xh0B4IrbkOfZqAuslGkoh-HDb9ePDtQYTuqyUwP3OrMFiKq_D4RWgayxuZDEW4MEiDMbwWqVh8lPb321_VJY/s320/June+2+analysis+2019.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />Paul Knightleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01607090430995396400noreply@blogger.com0