Saturday, 21 May 2016

May 21st plans

Good morning.

A glance out the window here in Snyder, TX, shows low stratus clouds streaming northwards on a southerly breeze, always an encouraging sight for storm chasers, as it demonstrates that a return flow of Gulf moisture is underway.

Today, a bulge in the dry line across western Kansas along with a nearby warm front mean that this area could be most likely to have supercells, and perhaps a tornado or two. For us, that would mean a ~400 mile drive northwards - do-able, of course! However, I think we're more interested in hanging around the dry line in west Texas/E New Mexico. Several models depict convection brewing this afternoon, with enough instability and shear for the risk of supercells - large hail is the prime threat, but a very small tornado risk exists too. Storm motions should be pretty slow, at around 10-15 knots to the east, and perhaps more south-east if a small cluster develops. 

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