Monday, 21 May 2012

TX Panhandle

Morning! After the excitement of yesterday's eclipse today was looking like a marginal day for severe weather, and potentially a day to position a bit further north. Latest guidance suggests, however, that there might be a slightly higher chance of severe thunderstorms around the TX Panhandle today, as moderate NW flow aloft combines with backed (SE'erly) flow lower down to create favourable shear for organised storms/possible supercells. Morning convection caused by the overnight low-level jet crossing a nearly stationary boundary is now waning as the winds ease just above surface. This convection will have left outflow boundaries, and also helped the front to stall, via cool outflow. Through today, storms may develop along the front/outflow boundaries, as well as across the higher ground of NE New Mexico. Although it will probably be a rather messy convective picture, it's certainly one where careful analysis of the observational data, to pinpoint the outflow boundaries/front, etc, should hopefully aid in finding a severe storm.

Over the next couple of days I think we'll be heading towards Nebraska, although as the flow aloft transitions to the south-west, a stout capping inversion will overspread the Plains, meaning that storms might not develop at all, especially as moisture is still rather meagre.

Late in the week and over the weekend, more meaningful moisture looks like returning northwards, and with the upper flow still remaining rather strong, severe storms may become more numerous. Certainly the higher Plains may be the place to be.

1 comment:

  1. Wow, your holiday looks amazing. It must be "awesome" to see all that and know the science behind it. More photos please!
    Have a great time!
    Abigail x