Saturday, 19 May 2012

Sleep time

We opted for McD's in the end this evening - not great, but we know what to expect!

The internet in the motel has been rather annoying this evening but has become a bit more stable now. As long as it works in the morning when chart analysis, etc, is required, I'll be happy!

A slight risk of severe storms tomorrow for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma, including this area. A cold front will move in from the north-west whilst a dryline sharpens to the west. A fairly stout capping inversion will be in place but it should get hot enough, along with some lift from the dryline and/or cold front to get storms going. I suspect storms will build north to south through the afternoon along the cold front, with a lower chance along the dryline. With the cold front advancing steadily, it's quite likely a line of storms will develop, especially further north. We're looking (as most chasers do!) for more discrete development, and that seems to be more likely along the dryline. Of course, nothing may develop on the dryline in which case the advancing cold front will be the only option. Storms should continue into the evening as a developing low-level jet pushes moisture up and over the front - it also looks like stalling out for a time around this area, which could allow for a small cluster of storms to form, although after dark severe weather will become less likely.

Attention will then turn to the annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday, which we hope to view from the TX Panhandle around Lubbock, where the sun will set as a ring of fire. Some concerns over cloud amounts from the aforementioned cold front, but hopefully that will be south of the Lubbock area by Sunday evening.

Thereafter, a quiet start to next week as a transient upper ridge moves in, although a small chance of some convection developing over the higher terrain to the west working into the western Plains on the NW flow. However, attention will then turn to an advancing powerful Pacific jet, which looks like collapsing into a broad western USA trough mid-late week. Although there are still some quite large differences in the output from deterministic and ensemble model products, there is certainly quite a strong signal for an upturn in severe potential for the central Plains states later next week.


  1. Paul & Helen,

    I now firmley belive that there will be at least two HIGH RISK days over the plains next week. I have now extend my chase time for one week to cover this pattern.

    As for tomorrow - its a weekend in May near to OKC. Expect every man and his dig to be out chasing - it will be a zoo!


    Stu Robinson

  2. Later next week looks more interesting although moisture return is still a bit questionable at the moment.