Saturday, 14 May 2011

Storm chances increase later this week

As departure time approaches for Helen and me, this blog will become more active.

It's looking like a trough will move towards the southern Plains later this week. Moisture will take some time to get back in but the dryline might be active with isolated storms from Tuesday onwards, but more likely Weds or Thurs. Thereafter there is a difference between ECMWF and GFS - the former is slower with the system departing; the latter a bit more progressive. The following week may see another trough moving in but somewhat further north - moisture *should* be more widespread by then but it depends on the first system - if it deepens more as it moves into the mid-south, a stronger offshore flow may develop and push moisture away.

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