Friday, 20 May 2011

Friday's thoughts

Morning! Well, we've decided to extend our stay in Salina for another night. This is due to a couple of things: 1) today looks as good in this area compared to anywhere else, which is not great, but we don't fancy driving miles and miles when we might get something close-by!; 2) tomorrow looks reasonable just east of here - well, current indications are it does anyway!

Overnight, a line of storms (a QLCS) moved across us with some nice lightning and heavy rain. This has left us in a rather cool, moist, and stable environment just now, with plenty of cloud. To the west, a dry-line/Pacific front is located N-S through central Kansas, with some cloud breaks ahead of it. This is expected to move slowly eastwards this afternoon/evening. Some heating may allow scattered storms to develop along this feature. Upper flow is rather parallel to this boundary, meaning storms may interfere destructively with each other, as precip is vented northwards into other storms' updraughts. However, shear is sufficient for organised storms/supercell structures, if storms can form.

This risk extends along the dry-line/front, and so picking a target area is not easy. The best chance of a tornado will be where the surface flow is backed, and current observations show easterly flow along the I-70 corridor. This is likely to veer more to the south-east with time, especially if sunshine develops - indeed, it is already beginning to go more south-easterly. However, this somewhat backed flow, and lower LCLs with cooler air might give the best chances for tornadoes today. Somewhere west or even NW of Salina may be our target area but we have to be rather general today.

No comments:

Post a Comment