Wednesday, 18 May 2011


We've took a drive from Weatherford to Childress, Texas, via Wichita Falls, where we had lunch.

A few AcCas clouds en route, and a distant high-based shower formed to our south. At the moment, the dry-line is to our west, visible as distant high-based cumulus clouds. However, a fairly thick layer of cirrus spread from the west for a time this afternoon, which reduced surface heating - it really needed to be very sunny this afternoon to get anywhere near developing convection. The cirrus has gone now but it's likely too late for anything to fire.

To that end, we've gone ahead and booked into the (very nice) Holiday Inn Express in Childress. I think we'll hit the pool in a minute before getting dinner, probably at the Kettle, in which we've eaten many times before.

Tomorrow looks like a dry-line set-up in Oklahoma, with a somewhat better moist sector ahead of it. Storm chances are still low, though. Thursday looks more robust, as better moisture will be in place by then. The target for Thursday is somewhere east of the dry-line, but at the moment there are a number of factors which preclude homing in more clearly. Somewhere from central into northern Oklahoma or perhaps S Cent Kansas seems most likely at the moment. Some models hint at the development of a triple point over N Oklahoma, but this will require overnight and early morning convection to hold up the northwards progression of the warm front.

No comments:

Post a Comment