Friday, 27 May 2011

27th May outlook

A somewhat quieter convective regime over the next few days, with less of a focus to chase targets. The challenge of trying to pick a target is thus greater than a few days ago, but also very interesting.

Today, a surface low, currently around SW KS/OK Panhandle should move SE towards western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, a warm front will lift northwards and a dry-line will mix eastwards. Storms may develop along the warm front across NE Oklahoma. A more conditional risk exists close to the dry-line, west of Oklahoma City through mid-late afternoon. Instability will be high but the cap will also be strong. Lift around the dry-line and warm front from low-level convergence may be enough to break the cap, allowing isolated supercells to develop. Prime threat today is large hail. I think we'll probably target west or south-west of OKC to start but will probably hang around the metro area until obs show a more definite area.

Thereafter, tomorrow may see an upslope regime bring a few storms to eastern Colorado. It's obviously quite a haul up that way so we may end up heading in that general direction at the end of today.

No comments:

Post a Comment