Sunday, 29 May 2011

May 29th - thoughts

Just 2 chase days left now before we head home. We need to be in Dallas on Tuesday afternoon so chasing has to be around the N Texas/Oklahoma area. It looks like at least isolated storms will be possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon in roughly the same area, along a dry line.

This morning, a small dry line surge has moved NE through Amarillo, but moisture lurks to the SSE and will likely move back close to Amarillo this morning before the dry line starts mixing eastwards this afternoon. With a strong southerly wind in the lower atmosphere, it is not likely to mix too far eastwards, and should lie through the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid-late afternoon. Ahead of this, reasonable moisture exists, but with such high temperatures expected today (38-40C) cloud bases look likely to be around 2.5-3km above ground. Shear through the cloud layer looks sufficient for high-based supercells with large hail the main threat. The fairly dry sub-cloud layer means that strong downburst winds may occur too. Early this evening, just a hint that around any storms which develop the LCL may become lower, but still not low enough - probably - for any tornado development.

This map shows the current dry line position, and an area which should see at least isolated storms this afternoon/evening. I think the Mangum to Hollis area looks good, but we may remain around I-40 for a time, near Erick or Sayre, to leave options open for heading a bit further north if needs be.

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