Sunday, 22 May 2011

Choices, choices

A pretty huge area of severe thunderstorm risk exists today, so picking a target is not that easy. In part, though, it could be determined somewhat by where we would like to end up this evening ready for the next couple of days - these show a strong risk for supercells and possible tornadoes across Oklahoma. Thus, rather than heading east from Lansing into the middle Mississippi river valley and surrounding parts, where the highest risk of tornadoes appears to be today, we'll opt instead to head south. The cold front/dry-line will edge eastwards today, and widespread moderate to high instability will develop ahead of these features.

Indications are that a subtle upper trough will move in this afternoon from the west, with a speed max noted moving eastwards across southern Kansas. This should induce slight surface pressure falls ahead of it across SE Kansas. It may also allow a slight dry-line bulge to develop across NE Oklahoma/SE Kansas. Just ahead of these two features the low-level flow could back just a shade. With this in mind, I think we'll be heading towards Independence, Kansas.

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