Wednesday, 18 May 2011


Morning - just having some croissants in our room before heading off. Today will see a slow-moving area of low pressure across the TX Panhandle area, with a dry-line east and north of the low. Ahead of the dry-line, a moist (and moistening) airmass is being/we be drawn up ahead of the dry-line. Strong heating and the approach of an upper short-wave may be enough to allow convection to develop by late afternoon INVOF the dry-line. South-east of the low, the dry-line will likely bulge eastwards, with backed surface flow to the north-east of this. This will be the most likely location for tornadoes, should storms develop.

Models have generally not quite captured the location of the low and dry-line this morning although they've done a reasonable job - ECMWF seems to have the best handle. As always, models are only guidance and so observations will be closely monitored as we progress into Oklahoma.

Woodward to Enid seems a reasonable area today, but we'll initially head north to Shamrock, TX, to pick up I-40 east. We will then modify from there as observations, etc, dictate.

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