Morning thoughts

Good morning! Today a stout cold front is moving southwards across central Texas - ahead of this, tropical moisture combined with surface heating should yield instability and perhaps a few severe thunderstorms, with some modest vertical shear.

The main question surrounds the progress of the front and whether storms will be undercut by it, especially as it is expected to continue to make reasonable southwards progress. It may slow down a bit with heating but there is quite a bit of cloud behind it, limiting surface heating.

We'll be leaving Weatherford this morning and heading SW towards Fort Stockton - we'll likely drop south to San Angelo before continuing westwards, as this gives us a better chance of remaining ahead of the front.

Below is an image of the supercell we saw yesterday.