Sunday, 24 May 2015

May 24th thoughts

Hello. Today there is a risk of severe thunderstorms from SE Colorado through portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A rather weak dry line should develop and mix slowly east and north-eastwards through the day with low pressure continuing to evolve over parts of NE New Mexico and SE Colorado. Picking a chase target is quite tricky in the absence of major forcing mechanisms.

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms will form over SE Colorado this afternoon, with a more isolated risk in to the NE Texas Panhandle. The better chance of seeing thunderstorms is in the former but the more isolated risk in the Panhandle will likely have better shear to work with, and could yield a very photogenic supercell or two.

We will only commit when short term observational trends (hopefully!) paint a better picture. We'll likely head south from Garden City towards the OK Panhandle and see how things evolve.

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