Hello! Well the time has come once again to get ourselves packed and ready for the off to the USA for this year's storm chase holiday.
The last several days has seen a drier airmass push well into the Gulf of Mexico, but some return flow of moisture will develop this coming week. The upper pattern is marginal favourable for severe storms this week with a trough cutting off in the SW USA but widespread severe storms are not likely, it seems. Upslope flow should provide some reasonable storms across the High Plains for a time, and the trough may eject as a weakening feature next weekend, which could make for a slightly more widespread risk.
Beyond that it gets very tricky to say...current indications suggest the strongest westerlies will reside across the northern states, so we may get periodic episodes of severe weather in the northern Plains, which are much less crowded, usually!
One or two hints of a western USA trough developing towards the end of the month which could potentially increase the risk. Long way off though!
Thus, this coming week will likely see us on the High Plains.