Friday, 31 May 2013

May 31st thoughts

Hello. A rather volatile situation may unfold across central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening. Very moist low level air topped by steep mid-level lapse rates should allow for strong to extreme instability across the moist sector by mid to late afternoon. Shear will be sufficient for supercells to form rapidly after initiation with hail to over 4 inches in diameter likely.

The tornado threat is there too, especially into the evening hours as low level shear starts to increase. Although the low level shear is not very high, the instability should compensate and may allow for strong tornadoes to develop. Unfortunately it is central Oklahoma in the firing line once again, so we can only hope that any tornadoes keep away from populated areas.

Initial discrete development should be on the dryline by late afternoon so we'll likely head west or southwest of Oklahoma City.

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