Thursday, 23 May 2013

Latest thoughts are that we're in a pretty good position here in Childress. The outflow boundary/front is pretty close by and various models hold it close to this area through this afternoon, with moisture pooling along the feature. East or south-easterly flow moving upslope along with a subtle upper feature approaching from the west should allow the cap to be broken in places. The backed flow on the cool side of the boundary should yield lower cloud bases and reasonable low-level vorticity - the tornado risk should be highest here.

The image below is from the 12Z HRRR model, showing dewpoint at the surface. The depiction is fairly similar to other models - it seems to have a reasonable handle on the boundary. Also, a dryline may mix in from the west in the afternoon - I've highlighted these boundaries and also a prelim target area. Previous experience also suggests that the Silverton-Turkey area is one area where storms 'like' to form in upslope flow, although, as always, refinements will take place as the day goes on.

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