Saturday 25 May 2019

May 25th thoughts

Hello. A very moist airmass is in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, into Kansas and adjacent parts of Oklahoma. A dryline to the west will mix slowly east today and a cold front/stationary front is in SW Kansas into the NW Oklahoma Panhandle.

A broad risk area is likely today - with a tricky forecast to pick out more specific areas. The main thing today is to be rather fluid, and able to react on the fly. Several models runs shows supercells forming along the dryline around the Texas/New Mexico border early-mid afternoon, with others around the front towards SW Kansas, etc. There is a lot of cloud around at the moment, and if that doesn't mix out, then storms may struggle to get going.

We'll likely head NW or N and monitor along the way - with one eye SW of Amarillo and the other further north.

This morning's analysis below.


1 comment:

  1. Indeed, maybe just NE of Lubbock. The dry line punch looks weak but DLS looks good indeed. SPC could be under estimating this one on a local scale, maybe? Good luck guys!

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