Hello. Two areas of interest today, it seems - one to the NE of a developing surface low over Colorado, and a second - much more conditional risk - over parts of Kansas along a rather diffuse dryline.
The pros of the former are that all models develop convection - although the low-level shear is rather modest.
The latter - models are not keen on any precip in this area - but CAPE is expected to be high, and shear is better. The risk is quite high that nothing develops, though!
We will prep to leave Garden City fairly soon and make a final call at that point - the former area is 4 hours away so we need to decide pretty soon if we decide on that!
Edit: I'm not too confident on my cold front position on this map - but, either way, there is a moisture gradient over S Kansas, etc, kind of like some kind of pseudo-warm front - this should lift northwards today and may setup a weak triple point somewhere over SW Kansas - interesting!
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