May 26th thoughts

Hello. Today, the SPC has posted a large moderate risk area for the western Plains, with a broad risk area for significant tornadoes. There are, perhaps, 2 more enhanced areas of risk - one near a front in E Colorado/W Kansas, and another on the tongue of the lower-level moisture across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The upper air soundings show a better cap in the southern area, perhaps preventing more widespread development, and keeping cells discrete - at least initially. Later, an upper trough will likely help upscale growth into one of more lines of severe storms with embedded supercells/tornado risk.

The maps below shows this morning's analysis - we'll likely head north or northwest towards Guymon or Boise City, Oklahoma.