No posts for quite a while - but now it's May I guess it's time to write something!
After some active weather last week, a ridge will tend to build in through part of this week, over much of the mid-section of the US. This is ahead of a powerful jet developing out in the Pacific. Later this week, the leading part of this is simulated by many models to collapse into a trough or even a closed low, around the SW'ern US, and then propagated NE. This could set the stage for several days of severe weather over the Plains later in the week and into the weekend, before the upper feature shifts away to the east.
Thereafter, the jet looks like nosing in, but the spread in outcomes starts to increase - some guidance suggests it might break down into a 'Rex block', with a high in the NW USA, and a slow-moving trough over the SW USA - this would bring rather a protracted period of SW'erly flow over the Plains, resulting in a sloshing dryline and multiple chase days.
Other guidance has the jet forming a deeper trough, with a resulting major ridge being thrown north over parts of the central USA. Strong SW flow over the higher plains could bring severe chances here - and disturbances could take the risk further out onto the Plains - but it could also remained capped and hot over quite a big area.
There's lots to look at in the coming week or two!
The image below, from the excellent weather.cod.edu site, shows the 06Z ensemble members from the GFS model - giving a flavour in the spread of model guidance - for the evening (US time) of May 22nd.
Some tasty members in there!
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