Dry-line

Morning - just having some croissants in our room before heading off. Today will see a slow-moving area of low pressure across the TX Panhandle area, with a dry-line east and north of the low. Ahead of the dry-line, a moist (and moistening) airmass is being/we be drawn up ahead of the dry-line. Strong heating and the approach of an upper short-wave may be enough to allow convection to develop by late afternoon INVOF the dry-line. South-east of the low, the dry-line will likely bulge eastwards, with backed surface flow to the north-east of this. This will be the most likely location for tornadoes, should storms develop.

Models have generally not quite captured the location of the low and dry-line this morning although they've done a reasonable job - ECMWF seems to have the best handle. As always, models are only guidance and so observations will be closely monitored as we progress into Oklahoma.

Woodward to Enid seems a reasonable area today, but we'll initially head north to Shamrock, TX, to pick up I-40 east. We will then modify from there as observations, etc, dictate.

Return flow commencing...slowly

After a nice dinner at a (busy) Kettle restaurant here in Childress, we're back in our room. We're on the 3rd floor in an east-facing window. There is a dry-line bulge to our south at the moment, with a developing area of low pressure close-by. This has squeezed the pressure gradient across this area which is producing gusty south-easterly winds. Although the moisture is not that high at the moment, it is return flow nonetheless, and is whistling through our window fittings.

Now this might sound like an annoying prospect for sleeping, but for me it's a sign of increasing storm prospects as the Gulf moisture begins to return to the area. I'm sure I'll lie awake for a little while because of the noise, but thoughts of storms will be drifting through my mind like the wind drifts through the window.

It reminds me of an excellent piece of writing by Roger Edwards: http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/return.htm

Childress

We've took a drive from Weatherford to Childress, Texas, via Wichita Falls, where we had lunch.

A few AcCas clouds en route, and a distant high-based shower formed to our south. At the moment, the dry-line is to our west, visible as distant high-based cumulus clouds. However, a fairly thick layer of cirrus spread from the west for a time this afternoon, which reduced surface heating - it really needed to be very sunny this afternoon to get anywhere near developing convection. The cirrus has gone now but it's likely too late for anything to fire.

To that end, we've gone ahead and booked into the (very nice) Holiday Inn Express in Childress. I think we'll hit the pool in a minute before getting dinner, probably at the Kettle, in which we've eaten many times before.

Tomorrow looks like a dry-line set-up in Oklahoma, with a somewhat better moist sector ahead of it. Storm chances are still low, though. Thursday looks more robust, as better moisture will be in place by then. The target for Thursday is somewhere east of the dry-line, but at the moment there are a number of factors which preclude homing in more clearly. Somewhere from central into northern Oklahoma or perhaps S Cent Kansas seems most likely at the moment. Some models hint at the development of a triple point over N Oklahoma, but this will require overnight and early morning convection to hold up the northwards progression of the warm front.

Wal-Mart time!

Hello! After a good night's sleep, we're up and about. I headed to the pool and tub this morning but Helen had a bit more kip.

We're currently at the Wal-Mart in Weatherford, TX. Helen has gone to get some goodies. I think we'll probably wander up towards Childress today.

Car is shown below, as is a little patch of AcCas.

Here!

It's now 2250 local time and we've been up a long time! Bleary-eyed but glad to be hear it's time to get some well-earned sleep. Our car is a Dodge Journey SXT, or something, in black. Looks pretty good and has all manner of electrical outlets in the car, including a 115V US plug. This will be good for powering our stuff!

Will have a bit of a lie in tomorrow, perhaps a swim, and then see what's happening. Current thinking is that the dryline should drift towards the edge of the Caprock, so we may head north-west towards Childress and points just west of there to see if anything isolated can develop. Later this week still looks active, so we'll be gearing up for that.

Almost time

Tomorrow is departure day, as we head to Dallas, Texas. Storm chasing is the prime goal although we'll also take in some sight seeing, etc, across the fantastic Great Plains.

Storm chances look to increase through this week before, and the chances may continue into week 2, perhaps even more so.

Stay tuned!

Storm chances increase later this week

As departure time approaches for Helen and me, this blog will become more active.

It's looking like a trough will move towards the southern Plains later this week. Moisture will take some time to get back in but the dryline might be active with isolated storms from Tuesday onwards, but more likely Weds or Thurs. Thereafter there is a difference between ECMWF and GFS - the former is slower with the system departing; the latter a bit more progressive. The following week may see another trough moving in but somewhat further north - moisture *should* be more widespread by then but it depends on the first system - if it deepens more as it moves into the mid-south, a stronger offshore flow may develop and push moisture away.