Saturday, 20 May 2017



Today, some preparations are taking place ahead of our trip. Things like charging batteries, clearing off memory cards, backing up the laptop, and also deleting quite a few pics from the laptop to free up some space for this year's pics and vids.

Reviewing today's longer range model output shows further hints of what ensembles have depicted - that is, after an unusually deep and digging trough across the southern and south-eastern states early-mid-week, the next trough digging in from the north-west looks to not push so much to the south-east, with the upper flow becoming a rather broad west-southwesterly over the US. This should encourage at least some return flow beneath modest lapse rates, and the chance of some storms through the latter part of the week. This is rather encouraging, given how strong the initial trough is - there were some concerns this would hang around in the east, driving moisture away, and although this is still not out of the question, it looks less likely.

After the weekend, some indications a ridge might try to form over the NW'ern states, ahead of a trough in the Pacific. Models tend to build these too strongly, and ensembles suggest the development of a western trough through the following week. This would suggest storm activity over portions of the Plains, but far too early to tell for sure!

The main thing is, though, to take it day by day and enjoy the experience!

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