Approaching storm at Hobbs from outside our motel.
Tuesday, 31 May 2016
May 30th
Hello. The risk of severe storms was fairly low today so we decided to try heading to Carlsbad, New Mexico, as storms like to form on the higher terrain to the west of town. They duly did so and we got some nice CG lightning. We headed east with the storms but they tended to fizzle - a big storm developed near Midland, TX, where we spent last night, but decided against heading down to it. It was very electrically active but we decided an early check-in to our hotel in Hobbs, and a dip in the pool (the latter just me) would be a nice way to end a rather relaxing day. A storm approached us in the evening with some nice lightning for a time, and very gusty winds. We can now see lightning off to the east from storms over there.
Monday, 30 May 2016
May 29th - not too much
Hello.
We headed through Lubbock and down to Hobbs, New Mexico - storms were forming to our west and south-west so we headed towards Carlsbad. This severe storm promptly started to die, so we dropped down towards Pecos, Texas, where another severe storm was. This died as we approached! We figured we'd done our good deed for the day for the people of this part of the world so we paused at Pecos before heading to Odessa for the night. A gust front from storms way to the north passed through around 11pm with blowing dust for a time, which was quite cool. Overall, a day which didn't show huge promise - and didn't really deliver much for us. However, it's always nice to be driving out in the open Plains.
We headed through Lubbock and down to Hobbs, New Mexico - storms were forming to our west and south-west so we headed towards Carlsbad. This severe storm promptly started to die, so we dropped down towards Pecos, Texas, where another severe storm was. This died as we approached! We figured we'd done our good deed for the day for the people of this part of the world so we paused at Pecos before heading to Odessa for the night. A gust front from storms way to the north passed through around 11pm with blowing dust for a time, which was quite cool. Overall, a day which didn't show huge promise - and didn't really deliver much for us. However, it's always nice to be driving out in the open Plains.
Sunday, 29 May 2016
May 29th thoughts
Hello.
A messy picture today with models showing a number of different solutions and the analysis (below) also not giving a huge amount away. We'll probably look for the moisture tongue /currently in SE New Mexico/ to move northwards ahead of a dry line. I think we'll drop to Lubbock and then re-assess.
A messy picture today with models showing a number of different solutions and the analysis (below) also not giving a huge amount away. We'll probably look for the moisture tongue /currently in SE New Mexico/ to move northwards ahead of a dry line. I think we'll drop to Lubbock and then re-assess.
May 28th
One year ago on this day we saw 4 tornadoes at Canadian, in Texas. Today we passed reasonably close to the town on the lengthy haul SW from Hays to Amarillo. The weather was cracking - good visibility, mainly sunny, and a high of around 28C. We had a great meal in the evening with fellow Brit chasers Cammie, Tim, Dan, and Adam.
Tomorrow, a dry line should be in place over far west Texas or eastern New Mexico. Modest SW upper flow along with veering winds in the lower atmosphere should allow a few severe storms to develop. Some overnight convection tonight could set-up outflow boundaries, which we'll be on the look-out for.
Saturday, 28 May 2016
May 28th plan - lunch in Dodge
Plan for today is drive to Amarillo - we've just stopped for lunch in Dodge City and then will carry on to Amarillo. A risk of severe storms tomorrow in the TX Panhandle region.
May 27th report
We started the day in Dodge City. Morning analysis and model guidance showed a surface low in SW Kansas, beneath an upper low - this upper low was progged to move eastwards and open into a wave. At the surface, the low was expected to move slowly east or north-east, but perhaps then re-develop back south-westwards a bit. The rich Gulf moisture of recent days had largely been overturned by several days of storms, and cooler, somewhat drier air was moving in from the west behind the low. We decided to target a boundary to the NE of the surface low - despite the somewhat unfavourable deep-layer flow, the strongly backed surface winds might do something interesting.
We decided to head to Great Bend, and had lunch there for the second day in a row! After lunch we continued NE through Ellsworth, as cells were starting to form to our east and south-east. Indeed, this line of storms quickly started to merge and look rather unfavourable for chasing, as they were unlikely to have decent structure and had no chance of being supercells.
We paused and watched a storm to our south slowly move in. We'd noticed towering cumulus to our west, and storms were already firing in far west Kansas, suggesting that convection should turn into thunderstorms on the northern side of the upper low. We started to head west towards a developing thunderstorm, and then north towards Sylvan Grove, where the storm was moving. We paused to work out how far north to go, admiring towering cumulus building into the side of the main storm. Helen then said, 'funnel cloud' - something we often do for fun (!), but in this case, it actually was! It was under the towering cumulus building into the main storm, rather than under the main updraught. This is something which sometimes happens in these situations. After a minute or two it disappeared. We took this chance to dash a mile or two west towards the agitated base of the towering cumulus, and then it did it again - this time, about 1/2 way towards the ground, and lasted several minutes. It was great to watch, and certainly brought fully into focus why we chase! This was something we'd not seen before, i.e. a funnel cloud under the flanking line of a storm. We decided to head towards the core of the storm, but after a while decided there was nothing of much interest to see now.
Other storms were forming to the south-west, with an isolated one near Russell. We headed there and noted a decent wall cloud under a nice updraught column. A few times it looked quite close to producing a tornado but never did - I don't think the rotation was quite as strong as the storm's appearance suggested, but it was certainly pretty. We then headed a little north of town and the colours were very nice as it was around sunset. A policeman turned up - he was keeping an eye on the storm. We had a nice chat with him for 10 mins or so before we decided it was time to brave the core of the storm and head to our motel in Hays, to our west. This was quite an intense drive with frequent CG lightning and very intense rain, and a bit of hail. Clearly this was too much for one driver whose car was in a field with a few police cars in attendance - the guy seemed fine. This was a more understandable 'off' than one we'd seen earlier in the day, where a lady seemed to have just driven off the road into a field - again, people were already in attendance - she seemed fine too.
We ended the day in Applebee's, of course, in Hays. It was a great day of chasing and brought us a couple of nice surprises!
We decided to head to Great Bend, and had lunch there for the second day in a row! After lunch we continued NE through Ellsworth, as cells were starting to form to our east and south-east. Indeed, this line of storms quickly started to merge and look rather unfavourable for chasing, as they were unlikely to have decent structure and had no chance of being supercells.
We paused and watched a storm to our south slowly move in. We'd noticed towering cumulus to our west, and storms were already firing in far west Kansas, suggesting that convection should turn into thunderstorms on the northern side of the upper low. We started to head west towards a developing thunderstorm, and then north towards Sylvan Grove, where the storm was moving. We paused to work out how far north to go, admiring towering cumulus building into the side of the main storm. Helen then said, 'funnel cloud' - something we often do for fun (!), but in this case, it actually was! It was under the towering cumulus building into the main storm, rather than under the main updraught. This is something which sometimes happens in these situations. After a minute or two it disappeared. We took this chance to dash a mile or two west towards the agitated base of the towering cumulus, and then it did it again - this time, about 1/2 way towards the ground, and lasted several minutes. It was great to watch, and certainly brought fully into focus why we chase! This was something we'd not seen before, i.e. a funnel cloud under the flanking line of a storm. We decided to head towards the core of the storm, but after a while decided there was nothing of much interest to see now.
Other storms were forming to the south-west, with an isolated one near Russell. We headed there and noted a decent wall cloud under a nice updraught column. A few times it looked quite close to producing a tornado but never did - I don't think the rotation was quite as strong as the storm's appearance suggested, but it was certainly pretty. We then headed a little north of town and the colours were very nice as it was around sunset. A policeman turned up - he was keeping an eye on the storm. We had a nice chat with him for 10 mins or so before we decided it was time to brave the core of the storm and head to our motel in Hays, to our west. This was quite an intense drive with frequent CG lightning and very intense rain, and a bit of hail. Clearly this was too much for one driver whose car was in a field with a few police cars in attendance - the guy seemed fine. This was a more understandable 'off' than one we'd seen earlier in the day, where a lady seemed to have just driven off the road into a field - again, people were already in attendance - she seemed fine too.
We ended the day in Applebee's, of course, in Hays. It was a great day of chasing and brought us a couple of nice surprises!
Watching a storm from a point west of Salina, looking south.
Funnel cloud number 1, near Sylvan Grove.
Funnel cloud 2, near Sylvan Grove.
Same.
Wide shot showing funnel under line of towering cumulus.
Funnel thinning.
Wall cloud near Russell.
Wide view of supercell updraught near Russell.
Supercell approaching Russell.
Sunset just north of Russell.
Friday, 27 May 2016
May 27th thoughts
Hello.
We've paused in Great Bend (again!).
Morning analysis chart below - earlier thoughts as below:
Severe potential tending to decrease now. Will probably target NE of the surface low...Great Bend to Salina.
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