Back home!

We arrived back home yesterday morning and had a nap until mid-late afternoon. Had a good night's sleep last night and feel almost back on UK time now!

We had a great trip this year with several very impressive storms. As always, the US hospitality was spot-on, and having to wait a year before doing it again seems a very long way off at the moment!

Lawton for last night

Well, nothing developed during the day along the dry line, despite strong instability - the capping inversion was too strong. This evening, though, a few storms have developed, perhaps as the low-level jet increased. However, we've moved eastwards to Lawton, Oklahoma, for our last night in the USA this trip. Perhaps we should have stayed in Childress, as that place is about to get a severe thunderstorm - oh well, perhaps the line will keep in tact until it reaches Lawton.

This year has been one of mixed emotions: we saw some fantastic storms, including the massive Canton tornado - it has dawned on me that it was my first Oklahoma tornado - all these years, and we've hardly ever chased in OK - this year, several chases were in OK; we enjoyed the hospitality of the USA - always a pleasure; however, we've also been appalled at the devastation which has been wrought by several of the tornadoes over the last 2 weeks (and of course, the spring as a whole) - thoughts go out to all the people and communities affected by these.

All that remains is for us to head to DFW for our flight tomorrow evening.

Last day's chasing prospects

Our chase trip is almost done. One more full day before we head home. We can't make the trip way north into the moderate risk area around Nebraska, so we'll try our luck with the risk of an isolated supercell on the dry line close to western Oklahoma. We're currently in Elk City but will head west to Erick for lunch.

A few high based showers/storms

The cap was very strong today but a few showers and storms developed on the dry line in the NE Texas Panhandle, into Oklahoma and Kansas. We got on one near Shattuck and saw a bit of lightning and heard some thunder. Also saw a very small high-based funnel cloud but nothing more than than. Of greater interest, perhaps, was the heat. 38-39C at times through the day!

We're now in Elk City, Oklahoma. A chance once again for isolated severe storms down here - a better chance much further north, but we need to be in Dallas on Tuesday, so we're not going to haul miles and miles!

Lunch in Shamrock

Just stopped for lunch in Shamrock, TX, Car thermo says 105F - obs nearby suggest 100F - hot either way!

Cumulus bubbling to west on dry line.

May 29th - thoughts

Just 2 chase days left now before we head home. We need to be in Dallas on Tuesday afternoon so chasing has to be around the N Texas/Oklahoma area. It looks like at least isolated storms will be possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon in roughly the same area, along a dry line.

This morning, a small dry line surge has moved NE through Amarillo, but moisture lurks to the SSE and will likely move back close to Amarillo this morning before the dry line starts mixing eastwards this afternoon. With a strong southerly wind in the lower atmosphere, it is not likely to mix too far eastwards, and should lie through the eastern Texas Panhandle by mid-late afternoon. Ahead of this, reasonable moisture exists, but with such high temperatures expected today (38-40C) cloud bases look likely to be around 2.5-3km above ground. Shear through the cloud layer looks sufficient for high-based supercells with large hail the main threat. The fairly dry sub-cloud layer means that strong downburst winds may occur too. Early this evening, just a hint that around any storms which develop the LCL may become lower, but still not low enough - probably - for any tornado development.

This map shows the current dry line position, and an area which should see at least isolated storms this afternoon/evening. I think the Mangum to Hollis area looks good, but we may remain around I-40 for a time, near Erick or Sayre, to leave options open for heading a bit further north if needs be.

Is this the way...?

I think we'll blow-off the chance in Colorado today - this will more than likely ensure something good develops there. However, it's too far to do, especially when we probably need to be back in the Panhandle tomorrow, and certainly close to Dallas by Monday evening.

Thus, we'll probably go to Amarillo, so we can at least make it to the Big Texan!