May 21st - report - off to Hays

Hello. We did our morning shop (well, Helen did it) at Wal*Mart, got data on our Verizon Mifi and I set up the various things int the car, and we also activated the Barton system. We then drove over 300 miles today, from Denver to Hays, Kansas. This was a positioning day as we are likely going east then south tomorrow, towards southern Kansas or into Oklahoma, but will decide that in the morning. There were some severe storms in parts of Kansas today, but we were never going to be here in time for them.

We had around 3-4 inches of snow overnight, and there was quite a bit on the land around the Interstate as we drove over the higher parts of the Palmer Divide towards Limon. After Limon, it still snowed for a bit more, but tended to become rain as we got near Burlington. It was dry when we got to Hays with some late sunshine, but still chilly - and this evening, a few wrap-around showers have moved over Hays, with a strong north-westerly wind, which is whistling past the window. Hopefully, it will shut up soon!


Pics below show the car - a Nissan Armada, and then a couple from Limon, where we got lunch - one just shows some snow on the roof of a building, and the other shows 'steam' rising from the car park.

May 21st plans

Hello. We ended up with 3-4 inches of snow last night! Quite impressive and something we've not experienced before on our storm chasing trips! Quite fun, really!

It's a cold and miserable day in Denver with flurries, and low cloud. We need to go and so some shopping for bits and pieces and sort out our mobile data hotspot. We'll then decide what to do, but will likely head east into Kansas. There is a slight risk of severe storms from a cold core setup, but they may develop early...thus, we'll not rush but if we catch something later then that's a bonus. Tomorrow will probably remain capped but there's a better chance of severe storms on Thursday.

It's snow joke, we've arrived in Denver!

Hello. We arrived in Denver slightly ahead of schedule, into a cold and very misty and wet airport. By the time we'd got through security it was snowing, and continued to snow into the evening! When we went to get our standard burger dinner from Applebee's, the snow was sticking on the grass and the roads were pretty slick. We're in a Winter Weather Advisory, and may end up with several more cms by morning! Interestingly, it was suggested by the ECMWF model back last Wednesday that snow could occur here today!

Time for bed now, as it's 5.38am UK time and we're tired!

A couple of pics of Greenland, and a couple of the Denver snow, below:

Just about time

Morning. The packing is done and shortly we'll be off to Heathrow for our flight to Denver. Today is likely to bring an outbreak of tornadoes, perhaps violent, to parts of Texas and Oklahoma...stay safe, all who are there.

When we land in Denver, they may be a fee showers and storms, so hopefully no delays. It'll also be chilly, and there's the outside chance we could see a bit of wet snow tomorrow morning!

The southwesterly upper flow looks like continuing into the weekend...Thursday looks the next chance for more organised severe storms. We'll decide where to start heading towards when we get there, after our first night in Denver. There's a small chance that, northeast of the low on Tuesday, some low topped convection may develop...but that'll be quite far east into Kansas...we might be heading that way anyway but we'll see how it looks.

Gearing up for departure!

Hello.

In just under 24 hours, all being well, we'll be on our way to Denver for this year's storm chasing trip. The packing has started!

The last few days have brought severe weather to the Plains, and a major severe weather event may take place tomorrow, especially across parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

When we land, it looks cold and wet in Denver, with snow on the mountains, with these conditions persisting into Tuesday as the upper low moves across the area. The moisture and instability will be well to the east and south, but on Wednesday it should start to surge northwards across the southern Plains. This may bring a chance for storms, perhaps severe. Thursday looks like a better chance of severe storms over the Plains, with the SW USA trough looking like persisting into the weekend.

This pattern is something we've not seen ahead of our trips for the last few years, with much more modest looking upper patterns. Overall, this should bring a better chance of severe storms - on the other hand, it's best to not get too worked up about it as nothing is certain in severe storms forecasting! At this point last year, the following weekend looked like bringing a ridge - and then we saw over 10 tornadoes on the 27th and 28th!

Of course, the excitement is always going up by this stage, with the promise of the open road, vast skies, severe storms, and catching up with storm chasing friends too.

Is it May?!

Hello!

No posts for quite a while - but now it's May I guess it's time to write something!

After some active weather last week, a ridge will tend to build in through part of this week, over much of the mid-section of the US. This is ahead of a powerful jet developing out in the Pacific. Later this week, the leading part of this is simulated by many models to collapse into a trough or even a closed low, around the SW'ern US, and then propagated NE. This could set the stage for several days of severe weather over the Plains later in the week and into the weekend, before the upper feature shifts away to the east.

Thereafter, the jet looks like nosing in, but the spread in outcomes starts to increase - some guidance suggests it might break down into a 'Rex block', with a high in the NW USA, and a slow-moving trough over the SW USA - this would bring rather a protracted period of SW'erly flow over the Plains, resulting in a sloshing dryline and multiple chase days.

Other guidance has the jet forming a deeper trough, with a resulting major ridge being thrown north over parts of the central USA. Strong SW flow over the higher plains could bring severe chances here - and disturbances could take the risk further out onto the Plains - but it could also remained capped and hot over quite a big area.

There's lots to look at in the coming week or two!


The image below, from the excellent weather.cod.edu site, shows the 06Z ensemble members from the GFS model - giving a flavour in the spread of model guidance - for the evening (US time) of May 22nd.

Home!

Hello! Well, we're home now and already missing the wide-open Plains! It was a great couple of weeks.