Friday, 31 May 2019
May 31st thoughts
Hello. Moist upslope flow and decent heating around the Davis Mountains should allow thunderstorms to form. Shear is not too high but veering profiles may allow for a supercell or two. Besides that, it's pretty here.
May 30th report
Hello. We drove from Lubbock to Fort Stockton initially, to target some upslope flow into the Davis Mountains of Far West Texas. Storms formed to the west so we dropped south-westwards to Alpine, Texas, to intercept a supercell coming in from the west. It tended to weaken as it approached, but we were very taken with the scenery - we've not been down this far before (Fort Stockton was our limit) so the mountain scenery was cool.
Another storm had formed and was tracking east, so we headed east to Marathon and then south a bit. We saw some supercell structure before this cell tended to die out. We dropped a bit further south to get some more shots of the scenery and stormscape before heading back up to Marathon - we had to stop at a US Border station, as the road goes north from the Big Bend State Park, where there is effectively nothing more than the Rio Grande seperating the US and Mexico.
We ended the day at a hotel in Alpine, Texas - we had dinner with Steve, Pete and Dan, and then took a couple of beers with them at their digs.
All in all a long day of driving - the storms were OK, but the scenery and new locations pushed it into the pretty cool category.
A few pics below.
A few pics below.
Thursday, 30 May 2019
May 30th thoughts
Hello. We're in Lubbock at the moment. The best combination of shear and instability today should be around SW Texas, towards Fort Stockton, if the cloud breaks. An eye to SE New Mexico too...as the cloud may more readily break here. We'll start heading to Fort Stockton but make some assessments along the way.
May 29th report
Hello. Today was a positioning day. We drove from Salina, Kansas, to Lubbock, Texas - 539 miles. This is to target the risk of some severe storms in either SE New Mexico or SW Texas tomorrow.
One pic below, just showing the big skies of West Texas and the nice sunset, from the hotel front porch.
One pic below, just showing the big skies of West Texas and the nice sunset, from the hotel front porch.
Wednesday, 29 May 2019
May 29th plans
Hello. Today there is a messy storm situation over parts of NE Texas, etc...we won't chase this and will use today as a positioning day for possible isolated severe storms over New Mexico and Far West Texas tomorrow. Thus, we will make a long drive to Lubbock from Salina...only around 535 miles!
May 28th - severe storms
Hello. We started the day in Hays and decided to target NE of the surface low, somewhere around Salina. We headed to Salina and had lunch - we waited around until later in the afternoon.
We noted a storm developing in the 'cold core' part of the system (not quite in the very warm/humid airmass) and on the north side of the low, back around Hays. Having started the day there, this was a bit annoying - even more annoying is that a bit later this storm produced several photogenic tornadoes!
Anyway, we noticed the cumulus field to the NE of the low (our target) was getting deeper, and some approaching lift from the west would help this to develop, we determined.
Sure enough, a storm formed to the NE of the Hays storm, and we were already en route towards Concordia. We then plotted an intercept route to Jewell - the cloud bases were rather lower, and we'd run into somewhat cooler air around the frontal boundary. Even so, the storm was a potent supercell as it approached us, but the low cloud meant we couldn't really see any structure. We were positioned in the notch as the tornado-warned cell approached us, and we saw several areas of rotation - but we didn't see a tornado. Apparently, a rain-wrapped tornado did occur - but there was no way we were dicing around in the bear's cage of an HP supercell! The inflow winds into this were intense - probably 40-50mph at times.
We decided to leave the storm and then headed south and east in the general direction of Manhattan, Kansas, as other cells were developing. We sampled the back edge of one, getting some marble-sized hail - the cloud motions were very chaotic as the outflow from the storms back to the NW was interacting with the updraughts - the tail end of a line of storms just to our north received a tornado warning, and we could see a lowering and a very nice shelf cloud south of this - but no tornado.
In the end the cells weakened and we headed to Manhattan, and then back west to Salina, where we're staying the night. We had dinner with Lou, Ed, Maureen, Paul B, James, Nick, and others.
Not sure what we'll do tomorrow yet - a big mess of storms is likely way to the south, but I think we'll leave that and enjoy a relaxed day of not chasing!
We noted a storm developing in the 'cold core' part of the system (not quite in the very warm/humid airmass) and on the north side of the low, back around Hays. Having started the day there, this was a bit annoying - even more annoying is that a bit later this storm produced several photogenic tornadoes!
Anyway, we noticed the cumulus field to the NE of the low (our target) was getting deeper, and some approaching lift from the west would help this to develop, we determined.
Sure enough, a storm formed to the NE of the Hays storm, and we were already en route towards Concordia. We then plotted an intercept route to Jewell - the cloud bases were rather lower, and we'd run into somewhat cooler air around the frontal boundary. Even so, the storm was a potent supercell as it approached us, but the low cloud meant we couldn't really see any structure. We were positioned in the notch as the tornado-warned cell approached us, and we saw several areas of rotation - but we didn't see a tornado. Apparently, a rain-wrapped tornado did occur - but there was no way we were dicing around in the bear's cage of an HP supercell! The inflow winds into this were intense - probably 40-50mph at times.
We decided to leave the storm and then headed south and east in the general direction of Manhattan, Kansas, as other cells were developing. We sampled the back edge of one, getting some marble-sized hail - the cloud motions were very chaotic as the outflow from the storms back to the NW was interacting with the updraughts - the tail end of a line of storms just to our north received a tornado warning, and we could see a lowering and a very nice shelf cloud south of this - but no tornado.
In the end the cells weakened and we headed to Manhattan, and then back west to Salina, where we're staying the night. We had dinner with Lou, Ed, Maureen, Paul B, James, Nick, and others.
Not sure what we'll do tomorrow yet - a big mess of storms is likely way to the south, but I think we'll leave that and enjoy a relaxed day of not chasing!
Tornado-warned HP supercell near Jewell.
Panorama of a tornado warned cell (right hand side was where the rotation was) near Clay Center.
Same as above, but the right hand end.
Looking to the east at another cell from the same spot as above.
Tuesday, 28 May 2019
May 28th thoughts
Morning.
Overnight storms have produced outflow which is pushing the front south...indeed, I think further south than models have simulated it. It should lift north but more elevated convection is rolling through central Kansas now. This may be the stuff which evolves in a cluster across the moderate risk area to the east. Heating after this and north-east of the surface low could bring an area north and northeast of Salina into play. More discrete development south along the dryline is another consideration.
There is a third consideration around N Central Kansas back into NW KS, north of the surface low...cold core set-up. The issue with that could be the extensive low cloud around at the moment - but it's already being eroded in E Colorado.
Overnight storms have produced outflow which is pushing the front south...indeed, I think further south than models have simulated it. It should lift north but more elevated convection is rolling through central Kansas now. This may be the stuff which evolves in a cluster across the moderate risk area to the east. Heating after this and north-east of the surface low could bring an area north and northeast of Salina into play. More discrete development south along the dryline is another consideration.
There is a third consideration around N Central Kansas back into NW KS, north of the surface low...cold core set-up. The issue with that could be the extensive low cloud around at the moment - but it's already being eroded in E Colorado.
May 27th report - blue sky bust!
Hello. Short report today - we gambled on the dryline but it remained capped, so no storms.
A storm fired on the northern edge of the pseudo-warm front I mentioned in an earlier post, towards Hays...we headed to Hays - we wanted to stay here for tomorrow's risk - the storm was well to the north by the time we got here but we headed north of town for a few lightning shots before heading back and having dinner at Applebee's.
We met up with Dan, Pete and Steve earlier on, in Liberal.
Nasty tornadoes this evening in Ohio, including Dayton - stuff like that hammers it home that busting under blue sky is a pretty minor thing.
A storm fired on the northern edge of the pseudo-warm front I mentioned in an earlier post, towards Hays...we headed to Hays - we wanted to stay here for tomorrow's risk - the storm was well to the north by the time we got here but we headed north of town for a few lightning shots before heading back and having dinner at Applebee's.
We met up with Dan, Pete and Steve earlier on, in Liberal.
Nasty tornadoes this evening in Ohio, including Dayton - stuff like that hammers it home that busting under blue sky is a pretty minor thing.
Monday, 27 May 2019
Still watching!
Main dryline is just moving/surging NE into the Amarillo area, with the back edge of the main moisture near Canadian...and then the moisture is lifting N into SW Kansas...convergence is increasing around the NE TX Panhandle, etc. Watching and waiting!
May 27th - mid-afternoon
Hello.
We're in Liberal, KS, at the moment, having got some lunch a bit earlier. We're eyeing some developing cumulus to our east and south-east and seeing whether they start to grow deeper. Some model guidance shows very favourable dynamics for supercells *if* storms can form...and it's a big if!
We're in Liberal, KS, at the moment, having got some lunch a bit earlier. We're eyeing some developing cumulus to our east and south-east and seeing whether they start to grow deeper. Some model guidance shows very favourable dynamics for supercells *if* storms can form...and it's a big if!
May 27th thoughts
Hello. Two areas of interest today, it seems - one to the NE of a developing surface low over Colorado, and a second - much more conditional risk - over parts of Kansas along a rather diffuse dryline.
The pros of the former are that all models develop convection - although the low-level shear is rather modest.
The latter - models are not keen on any precip in this area - but CAPE is expected to be high, and shear is better. The risk is quite high that nothing develops, though!
We will prep to leave Garden City fairly soon and make a final call at that point - the former area is 4 hours away so we need to decide pretty soon if we decide on that!
Edit: I'm not too confident on my cold front position on this map - but, either way, there is a moisture gradient over S Kansas, etc, kind of like some kind of pseudo-warm front - this should lift northwards today and may setup a weak triple point somewhere over SW Kansas - interesting!
The pros of the former are that all models develop convection - although the low-level shear is rather modest.
The latter - models are not keen on any precip in this area - but CAPE is expected to be high, and shear is better. The risk is quite high that nothing develops, though!
We will prep to leave Garden City fairly soon and make a final call at that point - the former area is 4 hours away so we need to decide pretty soon if we decide on that!
May 26th report
Hello. We left Amarillo with a fairly broad target area, centred around Boise City, in the far west of the Oklahoma Panhandle. We also wanted to keep options open for heading into Colorado too, to the secondary target area.
We got to Boise City, and a storm was already in progress to the north, moving NE through SE Colorado. We got some lunch, and waited for a while as we were still interested in developments where we were. A lot of low cloud was around our area, though, as well as a few elevated thunderstorms to our east. After a while we thought it might be best to try to intercept the Colorado storms, and plotted a route up to Syracuse, in western Kansas, to be ahead of it. We drove as far as Elkhart, Kansas, before deciding this was a futile effort, and our attention turned to the clearer skies in NE New Mexico, where clouds were bubbling.
We headed back to Boise City and got a snack. After a while, a couple of storms to the SW of Clayton, New Mexico, were starting to look interesting, so we headed SW to look at them - we paused at Clark's Monument - a small marker which shows the far NW of the Texas Panhandle.
We then continued to Clayton, where the storm was taking on more of a supercellular appearance - we headed NW out of town to intercept it - but this placed some rain in the way of the updraught area - and a brief tornado was out of sight from us. We quickly dropped back to Clayton and then a little south-west - we saw a well-marked low-level updraught region, and a funnel developed for a time - we're unsure whether this was another tornado.
The RFD occluded the low-level updraught and we couldn't see it - apparently a tornado continued within the rain, but we couldn't see it - so we moved ahead to get a nice view back at the storm.
We headed NE back towards Boise City - a line of storms was now present to the west and a surging area of rain to the SW induced a small-scale circulation, which became tornado warned. We peered at this for as long as we dared but saw no tornado. We arrived in Boise City as a premature night descended on the town, tornado sirens blaring.
As we were just getting to the eastern side of town the leading edge of the rain curtains/high winds overran us - and for a brief moment it was quite scary - cars had stopped under a bridge, and we had to get around them - and then blasted east at a decent clip to outrun it.
We then got a way ahead - but the storm had lost decent structure, so we decided to head the almost 2 hours up to Garden City, Kansas, for the night.
We had some storms as we got to town - with high winds, which caused some power flashes. We had to get a McD's as nowhere else was open.
All in all, quite an exciting day after a period where it was quite annoying! It just shows that patience is required for this - something I don't always have!
Another risk of severe storms tomorrow - less extensive, with perhaps NW Kansas/NE Colorado worth a look - or the dryline, but we'll decide that tomorrow.
We got to Boise City, and a storm was already in progress to the north, moving NE through SE Colorado. We got some lunch, and waited for a while as we were still interested in developments where we were. A lot of low cloud was around our area, though, as well as a few elevated thunderstorms to our east. After a while we thought it might be best to try to intercept the Colorado storms, and plotted a route up to Syracuse, in western Kansas, to be ahead of it. We drove as far as Elkhart, Kansas, before deciding this was a futile effort, and our attention turned to the clearer skies in NE New Mexico, where clouds were bubbling.
We headed back to Boise City and got a snack. After a while, a couple of storms to the SW of Clayton, New Mexico, were starting to look interesting, so we headed SW to look at them - we paused at Clark's Monument - a small marker which shows the far NW of the Texas Panhandle.
We then continued to Clayton, where the storm was taking on more of a supercellular appearance - we headed NW out of town to intercept it - but this placed some rain in the way of the updraught area - and a brief tornado was out of sight from us. We quickly dropped back to Clayton and then a little south-west - we saw a well-marked low-level updraught region, and a funnel developed for a time - we're unsure whether this was another tornado.
The RFD occluded the low-level updraught and we couldn't see it - apparently a tornado continued within the rain, but we couldn't see it - so we moved ahead to get a nice view back at the storm.
We headed NE back towards Boise City - a line of storms was now present to the west and a surging area of rain to the SW induced a small-scale circulation, which became tornado warned. We peered at this for as long as we dared but saw no tornado. We arrived in Boise City as a premature night descended on the town, tornado sirens blaring.
As we were just getting to the eastern side of town the leading edge of the rain curtains/high winds overran us - and for a brief moment it was quite scary - cars had stopped under a bridge, and we had to get around them - and then blasted east at a decent clip to outrun it.
We then got a way ahead - but the storm had lost decent structure, so we decided to head the almost 2 hours up to Garden City, Kansas, for the night.
We had some storms as we got to town - with high winds, which caused some power flashes. We had to get a McD's as nowhere else was open.
All in all, quite an exciting day after a period where it was quite annoying! It just shows that patience is required for this - something I don't always have!
Another risk of severe storms tomorrow - less extensive, with perhaps NW Kansas/NE Colorado worth a look - or the dryline, but we'll decide that tomorrow.
Sunday, 26 May 2019
May 26th thoughts
Hello. Today, the SPC has posted a large moderate risk area for the western Plains, with a broad risk area for significant tornadoes. There are, perhaps, 2 more enhanced areas of risk - one near a front in E Colorado/W Kansas, and another on the tongue of the lower-level moisture across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The upper air soundings show a better cap in the southern area, perhaps preventing more widespread development, and keeping cells discrete - at least initially. Later, an upper trough will likely help upscale growth into one of more lines of severe storms with embedded supercells/tornado risk.
The maps below shows this morning's analysis - we'll likely head north or northwest towards Guymon or Boise City, Oklahoma.
The maps below shows this morning's analysis - we'll likely head north or northwest towards Guymon or Boise City, Oklahoma.
May 25th report
Hello. We started the day in an overcast and misty Lubbock. The risk area today was broad but we decided to remain south of Amarillo in the central and southern Texas Panhandle. Storms were already firing over New Mexico, quite a way SW of Lubbock, and other storms soon formed along the dryline...the cap was weak.
We drove north to Tulia and then headed west after buying some lunch. Helen decided to slip off the running board of the car while rushing to get back in as a heavy shower was passing...luckily she didn't hurt herself but did a brief impression of a turtle on its back as she laid on the car park.
After this excitement we headed west to Dimmitt and then north to between Friona and Hereford. We observed a nice shelf cloud from a severe storm but this storm tended to fizzle as we headed NE.
The storms near Lubbock were becoming supercells and so we headed to Canyon and then south to Plainview...we drove under another developing supercell which gave blinding rain and some quarter sized hail.
At Plainview we got fuel whilst a nasty high precipitation supercell approached from the southwest, with 80mph winds warned for...it became tornado warned at this point. We decided to stay ahead of it, rather than dropping south for the next storm. We observed a funnel cloud but the contrast was very poor...a tornado was reported on the storm a bit later but we're not sure yet whether it was tornadic at the point we saw the funnel.
We went east with the storm along the same road as we drove yesterday, jogged north and east for a bit, and then decided to let it go and headed back to Lockney.
We then saw some cool turbulent skies lit up by the fairly low sun, and then headed to Plainview again...there was a lot of street flooding there.
We then headed north to Amarillo for the night, and had dinner with Nathan Edwards.
A big risk area again tomorrow...we'll decide on the target in the morning.
We drove north to Tulia and then headed west after buying some lunch. Helen decided to slip off the running board of the car while rushing to get back in as a heavy shower was passing...luckily she didn't hurt herself but did a brief impression of a turtle on its back as she laid on the car park.
After this excitement we headed west to Dimmitt and then north to between Friona and Hereford. We observed a nice shelf cloud from a severe storm but this storm tended to fizzle as we headed NE.
The storms near Lubbock were becoming supercells and so we headed to Canyon and then south to Plainview...we drove under another developing supercell which gave blinding rain and some quarter sized hail.
At Plainview we got fuel whilst a nasty high precipitation supercell approached from the southwest, with 80mph winds warned for...it became tornado warned at this point. We decided to stay ahead of it, rather than dropping south for the next storm. We observed a funnel cloud but the contrast was very poor...a tornado was reported on the storm a bit later but we're not sure yet whether it was tornadic at the point we saw the funnel.
We went east with the storm along the same road as we drove yesterday, jogged north and east for a bit, and then decided to let it go and headed back to Lockney.
We then saw some cool turbulent skies lit up by the fairly low sun, and then headed to Plainview again...there was a lot of street flooding there.
We then headed north to Amarillo for the night, and had dinner with Nathan Edwards.
A big risk area again tomorrow...we'll decide on the target in the morning.
Saturday, 25 May 2019
May 25th thoughts
Hello. A very moist airmass is in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, into Kansas and adjacent parts of Oklahoma. A dryline to the west will mix slowly east today and a cold front/stationary front is in SW Kansas into the NW Oklahoma Panhandle.
A broad risk area is likely today - with a tricky forecast to pick out more specific areas. The main thing today is to be rather fluid, and able to react on the fly. Several models runs shows supercells forming along the dryline around the Texas/New Mexico border early-mid afternoon, with others around the front towards SW Kansas, etc. There is a lot of cloud around at the moment, and if that doesn't mix out, then storms may struggle to get going.
We'll likely head NW or N and monitor along the way - with one eye SW of Amarillo and the other further north.
This morning's analysis below.
A broad risk area is likely today - with a tricky forecast to pick out more specific areas. The main thing today is to be rather fluid, and able to react on the fly. Several models runs shows supercells forming along the dryline around the Texas/New Mexico border early-mid afternoon, with others around the front towards SW Kansas, etc. There is a lot of cloud around at the moment, and if that doesn't mix out, then storms may struggle to get going.
We'll likely head NW or N and monitor along the way - with one eye SW of Amarillo and the other further north.
This morning's analysis below.
May 24th report
Hello. We started the day in Amarillo - we set an initial target towards Lubbock, but had to spend a little while sorting out a small issue with our Mifi mobile internet unit at the Verizon store.
We then headed down I-27 towards Lubbock - the cap was fairly weak today and so storms started to fire as we were on our way down. We decided to head SE from Plainview after grabbing some lunch as cells were moving NE from where they were initiating close to Lubbock - they actually did this all day, causing a lot of flooding just east of Lubbock.
We got to Floydada and then headed east towards Matador. We stopped just over halfway along to observe the approaching supercell, which was a high-precipitation type (HP). We could make out the updraught area, but the forward flank was very close to undercutting it (as is often the case with HP storms). We headed east to Matador, pausing briefly. The radar showed the low-level rotation quickly increasing, and a tornado warning was soon issued. We headed east of town and observed the low-level rotation increasing quite rapidly - it was moving east to our south, and was quite close - visually, anyway - to producing a tornado. However, it became undercut by the outflow and this was the start of the storm becoming fully outflow dominant. We moved to its east - and it looked quite nice - but when we reached Paducah we decided to leave it and headed south towards Guthrie. We stopped for a while to just take in the quietness of the Plains and the turbulent skies. We then headed to Lubbock for the night - but it was a more convoluted route as we wanted to avoid flooding east of Lubbock. After Guthrie we headed west to Dickens and then south to Spur. We then wound across country down to Post, and then NW to Lubbock, where we checked into our motel.
All in all, a messy day of storms but not necessarily an unexpected outcome, as it did look like being a bit of a messy day. We positioned perfectly on the tornado-warned storm, but it just didn't quite do it.
Tomorrow brings another risk of severe storms to quite a large part of the southern Plains into parts of the central Plains. We will decide what to do in the morning.
Some pics below of the storms, and also the wildflowers which are blooming very well after such a wet spring.
We then headed down I-27 towards Lubbock - the cap was fairly weak today and so storms started to fire as we were on our way down. We decided to head SE from Plainview after grabbing some lunch as cells were moving NE from where they were initiating close to Lubbock - they actually did this all day, causing a lot of flooding just east of Lubbock.
We got to Floydada and then headed east towards Matador. We stopped just over halfway along to observe the approaching supercell, which was a high-precipitation type (HP). We could make out the updraught area, but the forward flank was very close to undercutting it (as is often the case with HP storms). We headed east to Matador, pausing briefly. The radar showed the low-level rotation quickly increasing, and a tornado warning was soon issued. We headed east of town and observed the low-level rotation increasing quite rapidly - it was moving east to our south, and was quite close - visually, anyway - to producing a tornado. However, it became undercut by the outflow and this was the start of the storm becoming fully outflow dominant. We moved to its east - and it looked quite nice - but when we reached Paducah we decided to leave it and headed south towards Guthrie. We stopped for a while to just take in the quietness of the Plains and the turbulent skies. We then headed to Lubbock for the night - but it was a more convoluted route as we wanted to avoid flooding east of Lubbock. After Guthrie we headed west to Dickens and then south to Spur. We then wound across country down to Post, and then NW to Lubbock, where we checked into our motel.
All in all, a messy day of storms but not necessarily an unexpected outcome, as it did look like being a bit of a messy day. We positioned perfectly on the tornado-warned storm, but it just didn't quite do it.
Tomorrow brings another risk of severe storms to quite a large part of the southern Plains into parts of the central Plains. We will decide what to do in the morning.
Some pics below of the storms, and also the wildflowers which are blooming very well after such a wet spring.
Friday, 24 May 2019
May 24th thoughts
Morning. Today, the cold front has sagged into the South Plains of Texas, and then points NE through Oklahoma, etc. A dry line extends southwards from a small surface cyclone in SE New Mexico. The front should lift a bit north today and the dryline will mix eastwards. The area east of the shallow low may be a bit better for tornado potential but the overall risk is rather more nebulous compared to the last day or two, but still not bad.
We will likely head towards Lubbock and points north-east to pick up any supercells which can form off the dryline - the chase terrain in the area is very good too, with the pancake-flat Llano Estacado - the storms may propagate off the Caprock by evening.
This morning's analysis below.
We will likely head towards Lubbock and points north-east to pick up any supercells which can form off the dryline - the chase terrain in the area is very good too, with the pancake-flat Llano Estacado - the storms may propagate off the Caprock by evening.
This morning's analysis below.
May 23rd report
Hello. We drove from Enid to Pampa, and had lunch there. Storms were already ongoing further to the north-west, behind the cold front. A storm then formed to our west, moving NNE. We headed north, and intercepted it over halfway up the road to Perryton. We couldn't see much as there was a lot of haze as the humidity was high, and there was a lot of low cloud too.
The storm was then tornado warned, and we headed west on a Farm to Market road, eventually seeing the low-level rotation - for a while it looked interesting but the cooler outflow undercut the wall cloud and it became outflow dominant.
Further cells were forming back to the S and so we headed east and then a little SE, towards Canadian. We paused just south of where we expected these storms to cross - however, we then took our eyes off the ball for a short while - but long enough to not notice one of the cells suddenly wrap-up and produce a large tornado. We saw the report (our internet was not working for a while) and headed north - we caught the tail-end of it, seeing a white rope-like tornado, but we'd missed the main show - which was quite gutting!
Anyway, we sucked it up (pun intended) and headed back south a little to observe the next cells coming in. These looked fairly pretty but were rather outflow dominant - after a while we called it a day and drove the 125 miles to Amarillo for the night.
We passed through some intense dust, blown by high winds caused by a few thunderstorms to our south - the temperature also went up to around 26C, but less than 10 mins and 10 miles further SW, the temperature was 13C! Winds had been gusting to around 60mph, and it was pretty hairy for a while!
All in all, it was frustrating missing the tornado when we were so close, and had targeted the area - but that's just life when it comes to storm chasing! You can't win them all!
A couple of pics below from the later storm as well as a capture from the video camera (with some tweaking to bring out the contrast) to show the tornado.
The storm was then tornado warned, and we headed west on a Farm to Market road, eventually seeing the low-level rotation - for a while it looked interesting but the cooler outflow undercut the wall cloud and it became outflow dominant.
Further cells were forming back to the S and so we headed east and then a little SE, towards Canadian. We paused just south of where we expected these storms to cross - however, we then took our eyes off the ball for a short while - but long enough to not notice one of the cells suddenly wrap-up and produce a large tornado. We saw the report (our internet was not working for a while) and headed north - we caught the tail-end of it, seeing a white rope-like tornado, but we'd missed the main show - which was quite gutting!
Anyway, we sucked it up (pun intended) and headed back south a little to observe the next cells coming in. These looked fairly pretty but were rather outflow dominant - after a while we called it a day and drove the 125 miles to Amarillo for the night.
We passed through some intense dust, blown by high winds caused by a few thunderstorms to our south - the temperature also went up to around 26C, but less than 10 mins and 10 miles further SW, the temperature was 13C! Winds had been gusting to around 60mph, and it was pretty hairy for a while!
All in all, it was frustrating missing the tornado when we were so close, and had targeted the area - but that's just life when it comes to storm chasing! You can't win them all!
A couple of pics below from the later storm as well as a capture from the video camera (with some tweaking to bring out the contrast) to show the tornado.
Thursday, 23 May 2019
May 23rd thoughts
Hello. We're starting the day in Enid, Oklahoma. There is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms further to the west, with the highest tornado potential perhaps over the eastern Texas Panhandle. However, today's forecast is complicated by a very moist airmass (in which storms could develop rather randomly) and a cold front, which is being reinforced by convection on its northern side over parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle and SW Kansas. We need to watch this, as the front may well sink further south than models depict. We will head to Canadian, Texas, initially and refine from there - either targeting around that area (depending on the front) or heading south of Amarillo along the dry line.
Below is a morning analysis.
Below is a morning analysis.
May 22nd report
We started the day in Hays and had a broad target of N Oklahoma in mind. We drove the 300+ miles down into northern Oklahoma, and stopped to top off the fuel tanks around Orlando, Oklahoma. We could see storms on the radar south of Oklahoma City, and so wanted to ensure we had a full tank.
A storm was developing to our SW, and quickly became severe warned, with a nice supercell shape on radar. We headed to the west of town and observed a pair of wall clouds. The storm was then given a tornado warning, but seemed to struggle to organise further, having looked very promising for a time. It was moving into cooler air. We tracked it to the east and then north, heading towards Perry, but it continued to look fairly poor by this stage. After heading east towards Morrison, we stopped and noted new development to the south-west. We headed back to the west and stopped west of Perry to observe a good shelf cloud - having got some close CG lightning before this from another storm.
The storm was tending to become less potent and so we decided to book a motel in Enid and headed there for the night. New storms developed south of the storm we'd observed, and went on to produce some brief tornadoes. Further to the north-east, more numerous tornadic storms developed today with several tornadoes - some looked impressive but many were not especially well formed or easily seen/photographed. Even so, a number of chasers observed and documented them - good interceptions.
We headed to Applebee's in Enid for dinner. Tomorrow looks like another chase day, with storms likely across parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, into Kansas, and western Oklahoma. It may be a rather messy picture but with some embedded gems - we'll work out a plan in the morning!
Pics below from today.
A storm was developing to our SW, and quickly became severe warned, with a nice supercell shape on radar. We headed to the west of town and observed a pair of wall clouds. The storm was then given a tornado warning, but seemed to struggle to organise further, having looked very promising for a time. It was moving into cooler air. We tracked it to the east and then north, heading towards Perry, but it continued to look fairly poor by this stage. After heading east towards Morrison, we stopped and noted new development to the south-west. We headed back to the west and stopped west of Perry to observe a good shelf cloud - having got some close CG lightning before this from another storm.
The storm was tending to become less potent and so we decided to book a motel in Enid and headed there for the night. New storms developed south of the storm we'd observed, and went on to produce some brief tornadoes. Further to the north-east, more numerous tornadic storms developed today with several tornadoes - some looked impressive but many were not especially well formed or easily seen/photographed. Even so, a number of chasers observed and documented them - good interceptions.
We headed to Applebee's in Enid for dinner. Tomorrow looks like another chase day, with storms likely across parts of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, into Kansas, and western Oklahoma. It may be a rather messy picture but with some embedded gems - we'll work out a plan in the morning!
Pics below from today.
Wednesday, 22 May 2019
Lunch stop
Hello. We've just paused for lunch in the north of Wichita, Kansas - and will now carry on south into northern Oklahoma and take it from there.
May 22 thoughts
Morning. We're in Hays, KS, and the sky is blue and the sun is shining - this is more like it! It's not that warm outside, though, as we're in the cold sector. The warm air is lurking down in southern Oklahoma, etc, and through today it will surge northwards, as a warm front consolidates. This will set the stage for some severe thunderstorms across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and environs.
We'll head east and south, towards northern Oklahoma, and re-asses as the day unfolds. I like the idea of more isolated activity around Enid or points west, as the storms will be more numerous to the east and north-east, but we will not decide until later.
Morning analysis below.
We'll head east and south, towards northern Oklahoma, and re-asses as the day unfolds. I like the idea of more isolated activity around Enid or points west, as the storms will be more numerous to the east and north-east, but we will not decide until later.
Morning analysis below.
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